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The final game in Serie A this weekend sees Fiorentina travel to AC Milan, with the hosts in an awful run of form. This is a meeting between seventh and eighth in the table, so whoever loses this clash will be out of the race for a European spot. It would have been hard to see AC slipping out of the race for the Europa League just two months ago, when they were pushing for a Champions League spot and beating Juventus in the super cup in Doha. However, their slump could see them slip to a defeat at home to Fiorentina.

The visitors have won four of their last six games in Serie A to climb up the table. That impressive form helped them to make a winning return to European action, beating Borussia Monchengladbach 1-0 in Germany. That win has boosted their Europa League hopes, which might be their only path into Europe if they lose in Milan. Fiorentina do have an impressive scoring record on their travels, as they’ve averaged 1.83 goals per game on the road this season. They’ve also found the net in 83% of their away league games this term.

Milan can’t match the Viola’s scoring record, but they have scored in 75% of their matches at San Siro this season. They’ve scored in nine of their last 11 outings at home in all competitions, and they should fancy their chances of adding to that. Not only are they facing a side who were travelling in midweek, but Fiorentina have conceded 1.83 goals per game on their travels. They’ve let in 13 goals in their last six away league outings, so they should be vulnerable here.

However, both sides are low scoring in the first half. Milan have seen 50% of their matches at the San Siro goalless at the break, with 75% of their games under 1.5 goals at half time. Fiorentina have been high scoring of late, with the majority of their goals coming in the second half. They’ve scored 59% of their away goals after half time, while 55% of their goals against this term have been after the 45 minute mark. Milan have scored a huge 71% of their goals after half time, so expect a lively second half.

 

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